Ready, set ... bet!

Okay, so the Derby posts were drawn yesterday and I've had a chance to analyze the past performances of the 20 horses that will run on Saturday. I've really missed being able to watch the workouts since that great TVG show, "The Works," was cancelled, so I'm not feeling as confident as I was last year. In 2006, if you watched "The Works," you would have known that Bluegrass Cat and Barbaro put in the best tuneups for the Derby, and they ended up paired in the $500+ exacta.

Another thing I've done differently this year is not reading as much about the race on all the web sites that are out there - sometimes you can be overloaded with information. I'm just sticking to the past performances and keeping up on any breaking news that comes across the AP wire.

So, here are my thoughts on Derby 2007: I really believe Hard Spun worked too fast on Tuesday, and I won't be using him. Yes, I know it's sacreligious to throw out the "local" horse, and I happen to really like his trainer and owner, but it seems to me he got away from the rider and worked two seconds faster than the game plan. I won't be using Great Hunter from post 20. I don't like Curlin, who has only three starts to his credit. I was going to use Any Given Saturday, but his Wood Memorial looks to me like a step backwards. Cowtown Cat's numbers aren't in the same league as some of the others in the field.

I will be playing Street Sense to win, along with small saver win bets on Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy. I will be boxing Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy and Circular Quay in exactas and trifectas, and my longshot bomber-play is ... drumroll, please ... Sam P.!

Good luck and happy Derby day!

Doc

Early thoughts on 'capping the Derby

Trying to handicap the Derby, always a tough task, will be even tougher this year when you throw in the Polytrack variable. There are several horses in the probable field, notably Dominican and Hard Spun, who have excelled on the artificial surface, and it's going to be strictly a guessing game as to whether they will like Churchill Downs. To Hard Spun's credit, though, is a very nice work at Churchill two weeks ago. I am not going to be considering the Polytrack horses as carefully as I will those who have won on traditional dirt surfaces, and thus probably won't be using many in my exotics wagers. I will, however, use Hard Spun. As of today, I'm planning on using Any Given Saturday, Cowtown Cat and Nobiz Like Shobiz, along with Hard Spun and maybe Dominican, depending on how he works in Louisville.

A little Dominican flavor

Do you believe in omens? I'll admit I've had my fair share of "coincidental" winners over the years, the most recent occuring this afternoon. I was puttering around my house, listening to Philly Park's live racing on the television, when I happened to look at the screen and saw the current future-book odds for a long list of Derby contenders. I said to myself, "I should plunk two bucks down on one of the longest shots available," and my eyes stopped at a horse that was 77-1. That horse's name was Dominican, and I thought, 'jeez, it would probably be like throwing money away to play him.' Little more than 2 hours later the name Dominican became pretty well-known, because the chestnut gelding gained a nose victory in the Blue Grass Stakes over heavily-favored Street Sense.

I wonder what Dominican's closing future-odds will be tomorrow night; probably nowhere near this afternoon's 77-1.

Well, what to make of the Blue Grass? I wrote yesterday I didn't much care who won, and I really don't, but here's an observation: Street Sense has had back-to-back gut-busters, and you want a horse to enter the Derby fairly fresh and exiting useful, not demanding, prep races. In both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass, Street Sense had to fight most of the way, and it's made me not want to include him in my wagers on Derby Day. Of course, he could be a superhorse and prove me wrong, but that's what I think right now.

One final thought: Keep Curlin in your Derby betting plans. How good is this sucker? He really hasn't been challenged in his career, and won today's Arkansas Derby by the largest margin ever. Remember, Smarty Jones kept his undefeated status intact after annexing the Arkansas Derby and then the Kentucky Derby ... Curlin may be just as good.

A case of Derby fever

I really don't care who wins the Blue Grass Stakes or the Arkansas Derby tomorrow. I'm looking ahead to the first week in May, that magical stretch of days when the Kentucky Derby horses work out, get their post positions drawn, and finally run in the most exciting race of the year. Sure, the Breeders' Cup is a handicapper's treat, but nothing can hold a candle to the Derby, in my estimation. I'm really happy that Rick Porter's Hard Spun had a great spin over the Churchill Downs surface on Thursday, 'cause he'll give us folks in the Delaware Valley another "local" horse to root for. I think it's much more fun to have a horse with local roots in the Derby, like Smarty Jones in 2004, Afleet Alex in 2005 and Barbaro last year.

Those of you who follow Philly Park action know that trainer Ramon Preciado is adept at popping with horses the first time they run under his name. Some of them are square prices, too. In tomorrow's seventh at the Phabulous Pha, pay attention to Tonybeatathegate, who is making his Preciado debut. I like this horse with the John Servis-trained Waki Cherokee and Road to Richmond in the gimmicks.

Speaking of the Pha, I understand they've asked the state for more casino floor space. My main concern is that they are going to put the squeeze on horseplayers - not that they haven't been squeezed already. I may be in the minority, but I think betting the horses is so much more fun than mindlessly pumping quarters into a stupid slot machine. With the horses, at least you've got a decent shot at turning a profit. I will never understand what motivates people to spend hours sitting in front of a ringing, dinging neon monster that eats money faster than you can say, "I'm broke." But to each his own, so goes the old cliche.

Let's Go Mets

Yeah, we know this is a horse racing blog, but just couldn't resist mentioning that on Monday, the day the Fightin' Phils were humiliated at Shea Stadium by the Mets, a horse called Let's Go Mets won the 6th race at Philly Park. Given how horribly the season has started for the Phils, this should have been the hunch bet of the month for handicappers. Tony Dutrow had Let's Go Mets, who finished second four previous times, primed for the race, and he won much like the Metropolitans did ... for fun. Personally, I have mixed feelings about this horse - growing up, I was a diehard Mets fan, but my allegiance has now switched to the Phils.

The Blue Grass on Saturday now looks like a yawner with the defection of Hard Spun, who will either run next in the Derby or wait for the Preakness. Street Sense and Great Hunter will top a small field, and from a handicapping standpoint it's not very interesting. Better to save your cash for the Derby on May 5, and the stellar undercard that Churchill Downs presents.

Who do ya like?

After this week's round of Derby preps, it's even harder to hitch your wagon to one horse that you think will prevail on May 5 in Louisville.
Nobiz Like Shobiz looked like gangbusters winning the Wood Memorial; Cowtown Cat (whom we extolled the virtues of after he won the Gotham Stakes last month) prevailed in the Illinois Derby, while Giacomo's little half-brother, Tiago, took the Santa Anita Derby at big odds.
This Saturday, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will be the final tune-up for last year's 2-year-old champ Street Sense, who exits a rousing nose score over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby. The field for the Blue Grass will feature California invader and Pa.-bred Great Hunter, while Rick Porter's Hard Spun is said to be on the fence, according to his trainer, J. Larry Jones.
If Hard Spun defects, the race becomes much less interesting, so here's hoping his name is dropped in the entry box.
Here's an interesting note: Street Sense was shedrowed at Churchill Downs Saturday because the track at Churchill Downs was listed as "frozen." That's a real rarity for this time of year! The weather in Kentucky is often unpredictable in the spring - sometimes Derby Day is as hot as Hades, while other times it's downright cold.
At this point, if you put a gun to my head and made me give my Derby selection, I'd be leaning towards Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I'd use Cowtown Cat and Any Given Saturday in exotics.
One final thought: The unfortunate split between Churchill Downs, Inc. and the TVG Network will cost fans the opportunity to watch Derby horses in their final tuneups for the big day, as "The Works" was canned. Last year, we used "The Works" to sniff out our exacta horse, Bluegrass Cat, who capped a monster payout with the winner, Barbaro.

Helping our equine friends

Have you ever wondered what happens to thoroughbreds when they can no longer race? I’ll admit I was horrified when I found out a lot of them were sent to the slaughterhouse. I guess I always thought they were retired to green pastures, but that’s far from reality.

There are a lot of local and national organizations that either provide homes for retired thoroughbreds or retrain them for adoption. Recently I found out that millionaire and multiple stakes winner Shake You Down was given to the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, which began in New Jersey but is now headquartered in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. The gelding arrived at TRF’s Ocala, Fla. facility on March 21, which is great news. He had descended the claiming ladder and was clearly showing the wear and tear from several years of hard racing. Kudos to his connections for having the kindness to retire him.

On the TRF’s web page (www.trfinc.org) you can sponsor Shake You Down, which will ensure continued care for the rest of his life. Another new retiree is in need of sponsorship, graded stakes winner Champion Lodge, who was found in a feedlot in Colorado in September, just one step away from the slaughterhouse.

Some other local retirement organizations include the Standardardbred Retirement Foundation (www.adoptahorse.org), which is based in Freehold and helps our trotting and pacing friends, and CANTER (www.canterusa.org), which has branches in Pennsylvania and the MidAtlantic region.

Consider donating to one of these fine organizations, perhaps after you’ve cashed a big bet at the track. The horses really deserve it.

* * *

A field of seven was entered for Saturday’s Wood Memorial (Gr. 1) at Aqueduct, including three top Kentucky Derby prospects — Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday and Cowtown Cat. The last two are from the barn of Todd Pletcher, who has Derby horses from one end of the country to the other. We like Nobiz Like Shobiz to rebound in this spot, and while Any Given Saturday is a beautiful animal and he’s high on our Derby list, he exits a gut-busting effort against Street Sense on March 17 in the Tampa Bay Derby, which could take its toll. Cowtown Cat will get the acid test and we’ll use him in the exacta.