Early thoughts on 'capping the Derby

Trying to handicap the Derby, always a tough task, will be even tougher this year when you throw in the Polytrack variable. There are several horses in the probable field, notably Dominican and Hard Spun, who have excelled on the artificial surface, and it's going to be strictly a guessing game as to whether they will like Churchill Downs. To Hard Spun's credit, though, is a very nice work at Churchill two weeks ago. I am not going to be considering the Polytrack horses as carefully as I will those who have won on traditional dirt surfaces, and thus probably won't be using many in my exotics wagers. I will, however, use Hard Spun. As of today, I'm planning on using Any Given Saturday, Cowtown Cat and Nobiz Like Shobiz, along with Hard Spun and maybe Dominican, depending on how he works in Louisville.