Thursday, May 3, 2007

Ready, set ... bet!

Okay, so the Derby posts were drawn yesterday and I've had a chance to analyze the past performances of the 20 horses that will run on Saturday. I've really missed being able to watch the workouts since that great TVG show, "The Works," was cancelled, so I'm not feeling as confident as I was last year. In 2006, if you watched "The Works," you would have known that Bluegrass Cat and Barbaro put in the best tuneups for the Derby, and they ended up paired in the $500+ exacta.

Another thing I've done differently this year is not reading as much about the race on all the web sites that are out there - sometimes you can be overloaded with information. I'm just sticking to the past performances and keeping up on any breaking news that comes across the AP wire.

So, here are my thoughts on Derby 2007: I really believe Hard Spun worked too fast on Tuesday, and I won't be using him. Yes, I know it's sacreligious to throw out the "local" horse, and I happen to really like his trainer and owner, but it seems to me he got away from the rider and worked two seconds faster than the game plan. I won't be using Great Hunter from post 20. I don't like Curlin, who has only three starts to his credit. I was going to use Any Given Saturday, but his Wood Memorial looks to me like a step backwards. Cowtown Cat's numbers aren't in the same league as some of the others in the field.

I will be playing Street Sense to win, along with small saver win bets on Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy. I will be boxing Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy and Circular Quay in exactas and trifectas, and my longshot bomber-play is ... drumroll, please ... Sam P.!

Good luck and happy Derby day!

Doc

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Early thoughts on 'capping the Derby

Trying to handicap the Derby, always a tough task, will be even tougher this year when you throw in the Polytrack variable. There are several horses in the probable field, notably Dominican and Hard Spun, who have excelled on the artificial surface, and it's going to be strictly a guessing game as to whether they will like Churchill Downs. To Hard Spun's credit, though, is a very nice work at Churchill two weeks ago. I am not going to be considering the Polytrack horses as carefully as I will those who have won on traditional dirt surfaces, and thus probably won't be using many in my exotics wagers. I will, however, use Hard Spun. As of today, I'm planning on using Any Given Saturday, Cowtown Cat and Nobiz Like Shobiz, along with Hard Spun and maybe Dominican, depending on how he works in Louisville.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

A little Dominican flavor

Do you believe in omens? I'll admit I've had my fair share of "coincidental" winners over the years, the most recent occuring this afternoon. I was puttering around my house, listening to Philly Park's live racing on the television, when I happened to look at the screen and saw the current future-book odds for a long list of Derby contenders. I said to myself, "I should plunk two bucks down on one of the longest shots available," and my eyes stopped at a horse that was 77-1. That horse's name was Dominican, and I thought, 'jeez, it would probably be like throwing money away to play him.' Little more than 2 hours later the name Dominican became pretty well-known, because the chestnut gelding gained a nose victory in the Blue Grass Stakes over heavily-favored Street Sense.

I wonder what Dominican's closing future-odds will be tomorrow night; probably nowhere near this afternoon's 77-1.

Well, what to make of the Blue Grass? I wrote yesterday I didn't much care who won, and I really don't, but here's an observation: Street Sense has had back-to-back gut-busters, and you want a horse to enter the Derby fairly fresh and exiting useful, not demanding, prep races. In both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass, Street Sense had to fight most of the way, and it's made me not want to include him in my wagers on Derby Day. Of course, he could be a superhorse and prove me wrong, but that's what I think right now.

One final thought: Keep Curlin in your Derby betting plans. How good is this sucker? He really hasn't been challenged in his career, and won today's Arkansas Derby by the largest margin ever. Remember, Smarty Jones kept his undefeated status intact after annexing the Arkansas Derby and then the Kentucky Derby ... Curlin may be just as good.

Friday, April 13, 2007

A case of Derby fever

I really don't care who wins the Blue Grass Stakes or the Arkansas Derby tomorrow. I'm looking ahead to the first week in May, that magical stretch of days when the Kentucky Derby horses work out, get their post positions drawn, and finally run in the most exciting race of the year. Sure, the Breeders' Cup is a handicapper's treat, but nothing can hold a candle to the Derby, in my estimation. I'm really happy that Rick Porter's Hard Spun had a great spin over the Churchill Downs surface on Thursday, 'cause he'll give us folks in the Delaware Valley another "local" horse to root for. I think it's much more fun to have a horse with local roots in the Derby, like Smarty Jones in 2004, Afleet Alex in 2005 and Barbaro last year.

Those of you who follow Philly Park action know that trainer Ramon Preciado is adept at popping with horses the first time they run under his name. Some of them are square prices, too. In tomorrow's seventh at the Phabulous Pha, pay attention to Tonybeatathegate, who is making his Preciado debut. I like this horse with the John Servis-trained Waki Cherokee and Road to Richmond in the gimmicks.

Speaking of the Pha, I understand they've asked the state for more casino floor space. My main concern is that they are going to put the squeeze on horseplayers - not that they haven't been squeezed already. I may be in the minority, but I think betting the horses is so much more fun than mindlessly pumping quarters into a stupid slot machine. With the horses, at least you've got a decent shot at turning a profit. I will never understand what motivates people to spend hours sitting in front of a ringing, dinging neon monster that eats money faster than you can say, "I'm broke." But to each his own, so goes the old cliche.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Let's Go Mets

Yeah, we know this is a horse racing blog, but just couldn't resist mentioning that on Monday, the day the Fightin' Phils were humiliated at Shea Stadium by the Mets, a horse called Let's Go Mets won the 6th race at Philly Park. Given how horribly the season has started for the Phils, this should have been the hunch bet of the month for handicappers. Tony Dutrow had Let's Go Mets, who finished second four previous times, primed for the race, and he won much like the Metropolitans did ... for fun. Personally, I have mixed feelings about this horse - growing up, I was a diehard Mets fan, but my allegiance has now switched to the Phils.

The Blue Grass on Saturday now looks like a yawner with the defection of Hard Spun, who will either run next in the Derby or wait for the Preakness. Street Sense and Great Hunter will top a small field, and from a handicapping standpoint it's not very interesting. Better to save your cash for the Derby on May 5, and the stellar undercard that Churchill Downs presents.

Sunday, April 8, 2007

Who do ya like?

After this week's round of Derby preps, it's even harder to hitch your wagon to one horse that you think will prevail on May 5 in Louisville.
Nobiz Like Shobiz looked like gangbusters winning the Wood Memorial; Cowtown Cat (whom we extolled the virtues of after he won the Gotham Stakes last month) prevailed in the Illinois Derby, while Giacomo's little half-brother, Tiago, took the Santa Anita Derby at big odds.
This Saturday, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will be the final tune-up for last year's 2-year-old champ Street Sense, who exits a rousing nose score over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby. The field for the Blue Grass will feature California invader and Pa.-bred Great Hunter, while Rick Porter's Hard Spun is said to be on the fence, according to his trainer, J. Larry Jones.
If Hard Spun defects, the race becomes much less interesting, so here's hoping his name is dropped in the entry box.
Here's an interesting note: Street Sense was shedrowed at Churchill Downs Saturday because the track at Churchill Downs was listed as "frozen." That's a real rarity for this time of year! The weather in Kentucky is often unpredictable in the spring - sometimes Derby Day is as hot as Hades, while other times it's downright cold.
At this point, if you put a gun to my head and made me give my Derby selection, I'd be leaning towards Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I'd use Cowtown Cat and Any Given Saturday in exotics.
One final thought: The unfortunate split between Churchill Downs, Inc. and the TVG Network will cost fans the opportunity to watch Derby horses in their final tuneups for the big day, as "The Works" was canned. Last year, we used "The Works" to sniff out our exacta horse, Bluegrass Cat, who capped a monster payout with the winner, Barbaro.


Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Helping our equine friends


Have you ever wondered what happens to thoroughbreds when they can no longer race? I’ll admit I was horrified when I found out a lot of them were sent to the slaughterhouse. I guess I always thought they were retired to green pastures, but that’s far from reality.

There are a lot of local and national organizations that either provide homes for retired thoroughbreds or retrain them for adoption. Recently I found out that millionaire and multiple stakes winner Shake You Down was given to the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, which began in New Jersey but is now headquartered in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. The gelding arrived at TRF’s Ocala, Fla. facility on March 21, which is great news. He had descended the claiming ladder and was clearly showing the wear and tear from several years of hard racing. Kudos to his connections for having the kindness to retire him.

On the TRF’s web page (www.trfinc.org) you can sponsor Shake You Down, which will ensure continued care for the rest of his life. Another new retiree is in need of sponsorship, graded stakes winner Champion Lodge, who was found in a feedlot in Colorado in September, just one step away from the slaughterhouse.

Some other local retirement organizations include the Standardardbred Retirement Foundation (www.adoptahorse.org), which is based in Freehold and helps our trotting and pacing friends, and CANTER (www.canterusa.org), which has branches in Pennsylvania and the MidAtlantic region.

Consider donating to one of these fine organizations, perhaps after you’ve cashed a big bet at the track. The horses really deserve it.

* * *

A field of seven was entered for Saturday’s Wood Memorial (Gr. 1) at Aqueduct, including three top Kentucky Derby prospects — Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday and Cowtown Cat. The last two are from the barn of Todd Pletcher, who has Derby horses from one end of the country to the other. We like Nobiz Like Shobiz to rebound in this spot, and while Any Given Saturday is a beautiful animal and he’s high on our Derby list, he exits a gut-busting effort against Street Sense on March 17 in the Tampa Bay Derby, which could take its toll. Cowtown Cat will get the acid test and we’ll use him in the exacta.

Saturday, March 31, 2007

'Daddy's' Jersey connection

For those of you who may be looking for a New Jersey connection to this year’s Kentucky Derby, look no further than the winner of today’s Florida Derby — Scat Daddy. The son of Johannesburg is owned by Rumson resident Jim Scatuorchio, a retired Wall Street broker and a regular at Monmouth Park for many years. Scatuorchio said that Monmouth Park was the place where he took his wife Terry on their first date.

Scatuorchio has had plenty of success with his thoroughbreds lately. He also owns the top turf horse English Channel and several years ago campaigned the good 3-year-old More Than Ready.

The one and only time I walked "the walk" from the backstretch to the paddock with the Derby horses at Churchill Downs was in 2000, the year More Than Ready competed. And it was More Than Ready’s entourage with whom I strolled over, right in front of the eventual winner, Fusaichi Pegasus. That was an experience I’ll never forget, and I’ve always closely followed Scatuorchio’s horses since then. More Than Ready has become a very successful sire, too.

Scat Daddy looks like he’ll be a force to be reckoned with on May 5, and luckily for Scatuorchio he’ll have another chance to see and hear the big crowd and view the Twin Spires atop the grandstand at the historic Louisville racetrack when he "walks the walk" again. I’ll certainly be pulling for him.

On a completely different topic, can you believe that an off-track wagering facility has FINALLY opened in the Garden State? It was over seven years ago when enabling legislation was signed in the library at Monmouth Park, but legal mumbo-jumbo and governmental red tape delayed the opening far longer than it should have. The first parlor, christened "Favorites in Vineland," opened on Delsea Drive in that town, and it’s owned and operated by Greenwood Racing Inc., the folks who bring you Philly Park and its six Turf Clubs. The second OTB will open either in Woodbridge or Toms River.

Speaking of the Toms River site, it has encountered some opposition from the local community, since it’s being constructed very near a senior citizen development. They fear the OTB will bring crime and a spike in compulsive gambling, but personally I think those fears will be soon be put to rest once it opens.

When I retire, I hope to live near a racetrack or OTB, ’cause I know it’ll give me plenty of excitement in my "golden years."

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Bombs away!

Depending on your point of view, Philly Park has either been a handicapper’s nightmare or a longshot lover’s dream the last few days. On Tuesday, what surely can be considered a racing rarity occurred — back-to-back horses that paid more than $135 for a $2 ticket.

Yes, in Philly’s 3rd and 4th races, two mega-bombers blew up the toteboard. In the 3rd, the Pat Farro-trained Rymar came home to the tune of $135.60, followed in the 4th by the Diane Day-trained Out of Ireland, who returned $136.80.

Philly Park has been the site of many strange events over the years — remember jockey John Bisono, who was hit in the head by a flying goose, or the starting gate that was left sitting in the middle of the track when the tractor that pulled it ran out of gas? — but this pari-mutuel peculiarity really takes the cake.

And speaking of Philly, word from management is that the reason children are barred from the building during simulcast hours, and are only allowed in the picnic area and fifth-floor restaurant on live race days, is because slots players were letting their kids roam around the fifth floor unsupervised while they pumped quarters into the slot machines.

What I want to see is how the track handles the crowd on Kentucky Derby day, which always packs ’em in despite the fact that the Derby is a simulcast. Let’s hope the weather is nice and the betting machines and televisions are working properly out in the picnic area. In the past, I’ve always enjoyed hanging out there, but it’s a little smaller now since the slots construction took place, and some of the trees were hacked down.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

'Spinning' towards the Derby

It’s time to get excited about a "local" horse in the Triple Crown races again.

Following in the hoofprints of local heroes Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Barbaro, Hard Spun, a Pennsylvania-bred 3-year-old colt, thrust himself squarely into the Kentucky Derby picture by capturing the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park Saturday for owner Fox Hill Farm (Rick Porter), trainer J. Larry Jones and jockey Mario Pino. Porter, Jones and Pino are based part of the year at Delaware Park, and Porter has some horses stabled at Philadelphia Park with trainer Steve Mick.


It appeared to be a very easy victory for Hard Spun, a son of Danzig foaled in Chester County, Pa. Pino settled the bay right off the early pacesetters, and when he unleashed him, he took over like a seasoned pro. If you liked Hard Spun in this spot, you were generously rewarded with a $7.20 payout.

Like many in this area, I’ve been following Hard Spun since he made his smashing debut at Delaware Park. After he was defeated in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn last month, I thought that maybe he wasn’t quite Derby material. When Jones, whom I greatly admire, said the colt didn’t like the Oaklawn surface and shipped him to Turfway for the Lane’s End, I wondered whether he was just trying to make excuses for him. Obviously, I was wrong and he was right ... and once again Jones proves he’s one of the sharpest conditioners in the country. Members of the media covering the Derby are in for a treat — Jones is a gregarious, colorful talker who loves to interject his country-boy humor into every conversation. Prepare to be entertained by the man in the cowboy hat in the days leading up to the first Saturday in May!


If Hard Spun makes it to the Derby, he’ll be the second horse to use the Pennsylvania Nursey Stakes as a springboard to fame and fortune. You’ll remember Smarty Jones also whistled in the mid-December event for Pennsylvania-breds en route to capturing the nation’s attention the following spring.

Hard Spun already has a big fan club, thanks to the web site that Porter runs — www.rockportharbor.com. It’s named after Rockport Harbor, who was a Derby contender two years ago. By clicking the "Forum" link, you can read what Porter has to say about all his horses ... sometimes quite frankly! Porter is committed to sharing information about his stable with fans in order to get new people interested in the game. Too often owners and trainers take the attitude that what happens with their horses is nobody’s business but their own, and the public be damned. They forget that it’s the wagering dollar that helps drive purses, and without people in the stands, racing would soon die ... slot machine revenue or not.

One last point before I wrap this up — Philadelphia Park has announced that it soon will be barring children 18 and under from all areas of the track except the fifth floor restaurant and outdoor picnic area. The reason? Most of the grandstand is now a casino. Not a good way to cultivate the fans of the future, but the interior of Philly Park’s grandstand is way too smoky for kids, anyway. You’re better off waiting until the weather gets warmer and then turn them loose in the picnic area. And if you really want kids to get enthusiastic about racing, take them to Monmouth Park or Delaware Park, where the horse is still king and the ambiance is beautiful.


Wednesday, March 21, 2007

The Derby, Monmouth Park ... and more

It’s hard to believe that the Kentucky Derby is only about six weeks away. That’s not a lot of time for trainers to get their horses ready to run a mile and a quarter, although it seems like an eternity for us handicappers who can’t wait to start figuring our Derby exactas and trifectas in hopes of making a big score.

The last few years, there have been some 3-year-olds that I’ve really liked heading into the first Saturday in May – Smarty Jones and Barbaro – but this year smells like a crapshoot. Yes, Street Sense looked awfully sharp setting that track record in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 17, but was that really what trainer Carl Nafzger wanted in his first start back in more than four months?
He had to fight tooth and nail down the stretch with Any Given Saturday, and my guess is he may regress a bit in his next start. If you think he’ll be a vulnerable favorite come May 5, there are a slew of horses that seem capable of winning the Derby, including the Pennsylvan ia-bred Great Hunter.

Last week, I put a modest bet on Great Hunter in the second pool of the Derby Future Wager and got 11-1 odds, strictly because he was foaled in the Keystone State. I think he’s bred to get a mile and a quarter – by Derby runnerup Aptitude, out of a Roy mare – and he hails from the barn of Doug O’Neill, who seems to be winning all the big races nowadays.

Another 3-year-old I really like is Cowtown Cat, who impressed me winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct two weeks ago in what appeared to be a very easy victory. A big muscular chestnut, he reminds me of the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Charismatic, who also had a couple of very easy wins before taking the Derby in 1999. Plus, don't forget about Rick Porter's Hard Spun, who will attempt to get back in the winner's circle this weekend in the Lane's End at Turfway Park.

On the local front, do any of you like the renovations at Philly Park since the arrival of slot machines and the areas that are now designated for horseplayers? As a non-smoker, I can’t stand walking into the building – it’s just too smoky for me. The small area right inside the paddock is way too crowded, even on weekdays, and so I will have to wait until the weather gets nicer before I start going back on a regular basis. I much prefer hanging out by the paddock and the track apron to sitting on the fifth floor, anyway.

I guess a cramped, smoky environment is the price we pay for having the slots. Their revenue, after all, will keep the sport of racing alive in Pennsylvania. But gee, I long for the days when you could wander around the grandstand and find a nice little spot to study the program.

And before you know it, Monmouth Park will be off and running for what will unquestionably be the most important meet of its 61-year history. It will run two weekends, May 12-13 and May 19-20, before its gala, traditional opening day on May 26, which no horse lover should ever miss. Then, on Oct. 27, the Oceanport track hosts the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships, the first time it will be held in New Jersey.

Over the winter, the N. J. Sports & Exposition Authority spent millions of dollars updating the circa-1946 oval. One of the casualties, alas, was the Olympic-sized swimming pool that was built by Amory L. Haskell for the jockeys. It was beyond repair, I was told, and it will be replaced by a viewing stand so the crowd can see the paddock on Breeders’ Cup Day. I’ve never taken a dip in that pool (though gazed at it longingly on humid, 95-degree days!) but I hate it when a part of the original track is destroyed, much like those distinctive curlicue hedges that used to be in the infield. They were ripped out for the new turf course and were thought to have interfered with the o ld course’s drainage. But I understand that the infield will be landscaped just as beautifully this season as in years past.

Ah, just thinking about Monmouth Park on a warm summer afternoon gets me feeling nostalgic. There’s nothing better than sitting in that big open grandstand and feeling the ocean breeze while sipping a brewski… hearing the roar of the crowd as the horses turn into the stretch … and then perhaps cashing a ticket or two underneath the colorful Hall of Fame banners that hang from the rafters. I often think of wonderful days spent there as a young girl with my father, grandfather and Uncle Ziggy from Bayonne, who loved playing longshots.

That’s what I call a little piece of heaven.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Coming Soon!

Stay tuned at www.trentonian.com for this new blog on horse racing by Trentonian staff reporter Linda Dougherty.